President Donald Trump is only four months into his four-year term, but he and his team have already laid out plans on how to keep a Republican majority in Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.
The Associated Press recently reported that the president has already raised $600 million, with an eye on getting to $1 billion. And the Axios website listed elements of Trump’s strategy to keep the GOP in control of the legislative branch.
If history is a guide, it’s a challenge for either party in power to stay there. This is especially true in the House, where in the 31 midterm elections since 1902, the party that held the White House lost seats 27 times. Only twice in recent history, in Bill Clinton’s second term in 1998 and George W. Bush’s first term in 2002, did the president’s party add House seats.
The record is not quite as bad in the Senate, where the president’s party added seats in eight of 31 midterms since 1902. The most recent three are Bush in 2002, Trump in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2022.
Trump has only an eight-vote Republican margin in the House, and a six-vote margin in the Senate. It’s not hard to see the House tipping over to Democrats in 2026, even though the minority party remains unable to find its footing after its 2024 stumbles.
Axios said Trump allies believe if Democrats get control of the House, they’ll start investigations of the president that may lead to impeachment. That’s what happened in 2018.
These efforts are under way to give the GOP an edge next year:
• Prevent Republican retirements from Congress. The White House has been talking to incumbents in swing districts, asking them to stay in place next year.
• Put that war chest to use. A pro-Trump group, Seeking American Greatness, has started a multi-million-dollar advertising campaign about the president’s economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans.
• Discourage competitive primaries. Axios said the president has endorsed “a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents” in an effort to keep them unopposed in the 2026 party primary. Republicans further worry that competitive primaries could use up too much cash, leaving the party with less money for the general election.
• Recruit candidates in swing districts with open seats. The goal is to have just one Republican in these races, again avoiding a primary.
All this sounds like good strategy. But how many House swing districts are there? By the count of one website, 270 To Win, only 22 of the 435 seats are toss-ups. Another 16 seats lean Democratic, and six more lean Republican.
The Senate looks more promising, but the House should worry Trump. If the website math is accurate, those 44 tossup or leaning seats will determine whether he has Republican backup for the final two years of his term.
Jack Ryan, Enterprise-Journal
