What should Americans make of this weekend’s miniature Russian Revolution, when a one-time ally of Vladimir Putin sent his mercenary soldiers toward Moscow before turning the convoy away?
The first thought, and one that probably should be discarded, is that the episode is a signal that Putin is at risk of being removed from power. The obvious question that idea brings up is, by whom?
It certainly won’t be Yevgeniy Prigozhin, whose soldiers have been fighting on Russia’s side in Ukraine. Prigozhin blamed a Russian attack on one of his camps for killing 30 of his troops. He said Monday that he ordered the rebellion against Putin to prevent his troops from signing contracts to become part of the Russian military.
Putin said Monday that Prigozhin has three options. He can go to Belarus with his troops — which was the deal that turned the advancing units away from Moscow. Or he can fight for Russia. Or he can go home.
But given that Putin tends to retaliate against his enemies through poisonings, arrests and other means, the more likely outcomes are that Prigozhin winds up dead or in a Russian prison. He shot at the emperor and missed.
The Russian military’s ineptitude has been exposed in Ukraine for more than a year. But protecting the Kremlin would have been far easier than overrunning a nation whose residents have decided to fight back.
As for America, our interests are not properly served by an armed power struggle in a nation with thousands of nuclear devices. Putin is no friend of the United States, but it’s likely that if someone like Prigozhin seized power, he would be no improvement.
Bottom line: Check back on Putin in a few weeks or months. See if Prigozhin truly remains safe in Belarus or has walked into a trap. And keep an eye on Ukraine to see whether its forces recapture Russian-held territory. That’s how the world will know what’s going on in Russia.
— Jack Ryan, Enterprise-Journal
